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【目的】开展南水北调中线水力调控综合评价，为实现精准调度决策提供科学支撑。【方法】考虑水位控制目标、水位降幅约束、闸门调节频次、响应时间快慢等因素，构建了南水北调中线水力调控评价体系。结合可变模糊集理论和云理论，建立了一种基于三角形分布的可变云综合评判新模型，对拟定的10组南水北调中线输水典型水力调控方案进行评价优选。【结果】(1)方案3相对最优，综合计算等级值为2.76,评等级价为良；方案6相对最差，综合计算等级值为4.09,评等级价为较差。(2)大多数调度方案的效果评价等级为一般，综合计算等级值范围为3.02～3.52,这反映出不同评价指标之间存在矛盾。(3)排序结果显示，体现安全性的水位限值和变幅控制的指标对方案优劣判断的影响较大，这与南水北调中线调度运行中安全优先的实际调控原则相符合。【结论】可变云综合评价模型能够较好地综合量化评估各调度方案，并实现方案的优劣排序。未来可结合数字孪生工程建设，进一步研究调控模型优化和实时控制，为中线工程智慧调度提供技术支撑。
Abstract：【Objective】 This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the hydraulic regulation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project(SNWD-MRP) to provide scientific support for precise scheduling decision-making. 【Methods】 Considering factors such as water level control objectives, water level decline constraints, gate regulation frequency, and response time, a hydraulic regulation evaluation system for the SNWD-MRP was established. A variable cloud comprehensive evaluation model based on a triangular distribution was developed through the integration of variable fuzzy set theory and cloud theory. Ten typical hydraulic regulation schemes for water transfer of the SNWD-MRP were evaluated and selected. 【Results】(1) Scheme 3 was relatively the best, with a comprehensive grade value of 2.76 and an evaluation grade of good. Scheme 6 was relatively the poorest, with a comprehensive grade value of 4.09 and an evaluation grade of relatively poor.(2) The evaluation grade of most scheduling schemes was average, and the comprehensive grade values were between 3.02 and 3.52, which reflected the conflict among different evaluation indicators.(3) The ranking results showed that safety-critical indicators, such as water level thresholds and fluctuation controls, had a significant influence on the evaluation of the schemes, which was consistent with the safety-first principle in the operation scheduling of the SNWD-MRP. 【Conclusion】 The variable cloud comprehensive evaluation model can effectively quantify and evaluate various scheduling schemes, and rank them accordingly. In the future, combined with the construction of digital twin technology, further research on the optimization and real-time control of regulation models can be conducted to provide technical support for intelligent scheduling of the SNWD-MRP.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026022
中图分类号:TV68
引用信息:
[1]陈晓楠,卢明龙,赵慧,等.基于可变云模型的南水北调中线水力调控综合评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2026,47(02):44-52.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026022.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(51979109); 水利青年科技英才项目(JHYC202207)
2025-05-15
2025-05-15
2025-05-15