华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)

【目的】揭示鄱阳湖五河入湖水沙通量的长期变化规律、突变特征及驱动因素，为流域水资源管理和水沙调控策略制定提供科学依据。【方法】基于1960—2018年五河径流量、输沙量及降水、气温数据，采用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析和双累积曲线法，系统分析水沙通量的趋势变化、突变年份、周期特征及气候与人类活动的贡献。【结果】(1)五河入湖径流量在研究期内保持总体稳定，无显著长期趋势；输沙量显著下降，1995年为突变点，下降幅度达64.26%。(2)径流量主要呈现10年以内的短周期，与区域季风气候相关；输沙量表现出超过10年的长周期，反映气候与人类活动的综合驱动。(3)基准期(1960—1995年)降水-输沙关系稳定，而变化期(1995—2018年)实际输沙量远低于理论值，人类活动使单位降水的输沙贡献显著降低。(4)双累积分析显示降水-径流关系稳定，但降水-输沙关系在1995年后斜率明显减小，说明水库拦沙、水土保持和采砂管理等措施是输沙下降的主导因素。【结论】鄱阳湖五河输沙过程在1995年后发生显著变化，其中人类活动的调控作用显著强于气候变化的直接影响。未来应结合水库调度优化、水土保持工程和采砂管控政策，加强对流域输沙长期变化的管理与预测，为鄱阳湖生态安全和水沙调控提供支撑。

【Objective】 This study aims to reveal the long-term variation patterns, abrupt change characteristics, and driving factors of water and sediment fluxes of the five rivers into Poyang Lake, thereby providing scientific support for basin water resources management and water-sediment regulation strategies. 【Methods】 Based on runoff, sediment load, precipitation, and temperature data of the five rivers from 1960 to 2018, cumulative anomaly analysis, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Morlet wavelet analysis, and double mass curve methods were employed to systematically analyze the trends, abrupt change years, periodic features, and the contributions of climate change and human activities to water and sediment flux variations. 【Results】(1) The runoff from the five rivers into Poyang Lake remained generally stable throughout the study period, showing no significant long-term trend, whereas the sediment load declined markedly, with 1995 identified as the year of abrupt change and a reduction rate of 64.26%.(2) Runoff was dominated by short-term cycles of less than 10 years, associated with the regional monsoon climate, while sediment load showed long-term cycles exceeding 10 years, reflecting combined driving factors of climate change and human activities.(3) During the baseline period(1960-1995), the precipitation-sediment relationship remained stable. However, in the change period(1995-2018), the actual sediment load was much lower than the theoretical value, indicating that human activities significantly reduced sediment load per unit of precipitation.(4) Double mass curve analysis showed a stable precipitation-runoff relationship, whereas the slope of the precipitation-sediment relationship decreased significantly after 1995, indicating that sediment retention by reservoirs, soil and water conservation measures, and sand mining management were the dominant factors driving the sediment decline. 【Conclusion】 The sediment load processes of the five rivers into Poyang Lake have undergone significant changes after 1995, with human activities exerting a stronger regulatory effect than the direct impacts of climate change. Future basin management should integrate reservoir operation optimization, soil and water conservation projects, and sand mining control policies to enhance long-term sediment management and support ecological security in the Poyang Lake Basin.