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近年来，世界各地高温干旱复合极端气候事件频发，导致农业干旱风险加剧，严重威胁区域的粮食安全和水资源安全。因此，定量评估高温干旱复合事件驱动下的农业干旱风险对防旱减灾具有重要意义。分别以6个月尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)、3个月尺度的标准化温度指数(STI)和标准化土壤湿度指数(SSI)表征气象干旱、高温事件和农业干旱，并基于Meta-Gaussian模型的多变量条件概率和联合概率评估不同事件组合下陕西省夏季发生农业干旱的风险。结果表明：(1)随着驱动组合事件变量的增多和严重程度的加剧，陕西省遭受农业干旱的风险增大(条件概率二维>0.30,三维>0.35,四维>0.50)。其中，气象干旱和高温事件条件下，农业干旱发生风险最大的月份分别为8月和6月。(2)随着并发事件增多和严重程度的加剧，陕西省多变量复合事件的风险减小(联合概率二维<0.30,三维<0.20,四维<0.15)。相比陕北和陕南地区，关中平原遭遇多变量复合事件驱动的农业干旱风险更大。
Abstract：The frequent occurrence of compound extreme climate events, such as heatwaves and droughts, around the world in recent years has increased agricultural droughts risks, threatening regional food and lwater security. Therefore, quantitative assessment of agricultural drought risk driven by compound heat and drought events is of great significance for drought prevention and disaster mitigation. In this paper, meteorological droughts, high temperature events and agricultural droughts were represented by standardized precipitation index(SPI)on 6-month scale, standardized temperature index(STI) and standardized soil moisture index(SSI) on 3-month scale respectively.Based on the Meta-Gaussian model, the conditional and joint probabilities of agricultural drought occurrence during the summer in Shaanxi Province were assessed under different combinations of compound events. The results show that:(1)The risk of agricultural drought in Shaanxi province increases with the number and severity of driving compound event variables(conditional probabilities exceed 0.30, 0.35, and 0.50 for 2-, 3-, and 4-dimensional cases, respectively).Specifically, the months with the highest risk of agricultural drought driven by meteorological drought and high-temperature events were August and June, respectively;(2) The risk of multivariate compound events in Shaanxi Province decreases as the number and severity of concurrent events increase(joint probabilities are less than 0.30, 0.20, and 0.15 for 2-, 3-, and 4-dimensional cases, respectively). Among the regions, the Guanzhong Plain exhibits a higher risk of agricultural drought driven by multivariate compound events compared to northern and southern Shaanxi.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025005
中图分类号:S423
引用信息:
[1]闫瀚文,粟晓玲,吴海江.基于Meta-Gaussian模型的陕西省农业干旱风险评估[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2025,46(01):41-52.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025005.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079111); 水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022018); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金