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【目的】揭示天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川水文过程的演变规律及其对气象因子的响应机制，为区域水资源管理与气候变化应对提供科学依据。【方法】采用M-K方法检验1号冰川1989—2019年物质平衡序列，识别突变年份及变化趋势；依据物质平衡线将1号冰川划分为积累区和消融区，并通过小波分析探讨冰川水文过程的周期、频率和相位特征。【结果】(1)1号冰川物质平衡于1993年和1996年发生突变，总体呈持续下降趋势；(2)积累区和消融区物质平衡对降水和气温的响应具有多尺度效应，以1年共振周期为主，滞后响应时间约半年；(3)消融区与积累区的物质平衡存在半年短周期和1年长周期共振，两者之间的水文传递过程具有高度同步性；(4)降水、消融区物质平衡和蒸发对冰川区总径流的影响均表现为1年共振周期，总径流对降水和蒸发的响应滞后为1～2个月，对冰川融水的滞后响应约半年。【结论】1号冰川物质平衡呈现阶段性突变与持续亏损趋势，其水文过程具有多尺度共振特征，且不同水文要素间存在差异化的响应滞后，揭示了冰川对径流的缓冲调节机制。在全球变暖背景下，需重点关注冰川融水的滞后补给效应，并加强冰川区多要素的长期定位观测。
Abstract：【Objective】 This study aims to reveal the evolution patterns of the hydrological processes of Urumqi Glacier No.1 at the headwaters of Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains and their response mechanisms to meteorological factors, providing a scientific basis for regional water resources management and climate change adaptation. 【Methods】 The Mann-Kendall(M-K) test was applied to analyze the mass balance time series of Glacier No.1 from 1989 to 2019 to identify years with abrupt changes and variation trends. Glacier No.1 was divided into accumulation zone and the ablation zone according to the equilibrium line altitude(ELA). Wavelet analysis was employed to examine the periodicity, frequency, and phase characteristics of the glacier hydrological processes. 【Results】(1) Abrupt changes in the mass balance of Glacier No.1 occurred in 1993 and 1996, and the overall trend showed a continuous decline.(2) The mass balance in both the accumulation zone and the ablation zone exhibited multi-scale responses to precipitation and air temperature, dominated by a 1-year resonance period, with a lag response of approximately 6 months.(3) The mass balance in the ablation and the accumulation zone showed resonance at a short period of 6 months and a long period of 1 year. The hydrological transfer process between the two zones exhibited an immediate response effect.(4) The effects of precipitation, mass balance in the ablation zone, and evaporation on the total runoff in the glacier area all showed a 1-year resonance period. The response of total runoff lagged behind precipitation and evaporation by 1-2 months, and lagged behind glacial meltwater by approximately 6 months. 【Conclusion】 The mass balance of Glacier No.1 exhibits staged abrupt changes and a persistent deficit trend. Its hydrological processes display multi-scale resonance characteristics, with differentiated lagged responses among hydrological variables, revealing the buffering and regulating role of glaciers in runoff generation. Under the context of global warming, particular attention should be paid to the delayed contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff, and long-term in-situ monitoring of multiple glacial-hydrological elements should be strengthened.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026019
中图分类号:P343.6
引用信息:
[1]矦朵朵,郝慧清,李忠勤,等.基于小波分析的乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川水文特征研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2026,47(02):9-20.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026019.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42072277)
2025-04-21
2025-04-21
2025-04-21