| 610 | 0 | 350 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】评估土地利用及气候变化对流域水文过程的影响、明确不同驱动因子对径流量变化的贡献程度，为区域水资源规划与管理及流域生态保护提供科学依据。【方法】以南湾水库上游流域为研究对象，通过构建SWAT水文模型，并结合土地利用变化情景及CMIP6全球气候模式中的多种气候情景，对流域径流总量在不同时期的演变特征进行了模拟分析。【结果】(1)模型经率定及验证后，确定性系数和纳什效率系数均达到模型评价要求，表明模型在研究区具有良好的适用性；(2)林地、草地、建设用地是研究区的主要土地利用类型，结合历史反演法的分析表明，耕地占比的增加会增大径流量，林地占比的增加会削减径流量；(3)CMIP6计划下的3种未来气候情景，在未来近期(2021—2060年)与未来远期(2061—2100年)的年均径流总量变化幅度分别为10.80%～21.74%、13.19%～18.18%和9.93%～19.77%,且未来远期增幅更为显著；(4)通过设置气温和降雨梯度，发现降雨量对径流量的影响范围为-14.02%～14.63%,气温对径流量的影响范围为-0.25%～3.10%,表明降雨量对径流量的变化具有更显著的驱动作用。【结论】土地利用变化与气候变化共同影响南湾水库以上流域径流量，其中降雨变化是径流量变化的主要驱动因素。未来气候变暖背景下流域径流量呈增加趋势，远期尤为显著。
Abstract：【Objective】 This study aims to evaluate the impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological processes in the Nanwan Reservoir Basin, clarify the contribution of different driving factors to runoff variation, and provide a scientific basis for regional water resources planning and management as well as watershed ecological protection. 【Methods】 Taking the Upper Nanwan Reservoir Watershed as the study area, the SWAT hydrological model was constructed and combined with land use change scenarios and multiple climate scenarios from CMIP6 to simulate and analyze the evolutionary characteristics of total runoff during different periods. 【Results】(1) After calibration and validation, both the coefficient of determination(R2) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NS) met the model evaluation requirements, indicating good applicability of the model in the study area.(2) Forest land, grassland, and construction land were the main land use types in the study area. Analysis based on historical inversion showed that an increase in the proportion of cultivated land increased runoff, while an increase in the proportion of forest land reduced runoff.(3) Under three future climate scenarios from CMIP6, annual total runoff in the near future(2021-2060) and far future(2061-2100) was projected to change by 10.80%-21.74%, 13.19%-18.18%, and 9.93%-19.77%, respectively, with more significant increases in the far future;(4) By setting temperature and precipitation gradients, it was found that precipitation affected runoff in the range of-14.02% to 14.63%, while temperature affected runoff in the range of-0.25% to 3.10%, indicating that precipitation has a more significant driving effect on runoff changes. 【Conclusion】 Both land use change and climate change affect runoff in the Upper Nanwan Reservoir Watershed, with precipitation variation being the main driving factor. Under future climate warming, runoff volume is expected to increase, especially in the long term.
[1] 袁晓蕾，王超，李柏延，等.长江流域土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力及影响综述[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2023,48(8):1241-1255.[YUAN X L,WANG C,LI B Y,et al.Driving forces and impacts of land use/cover change in the Yangtze River Basin:a review[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2023,48(8):1241-1255.]
[2] 张成凤，杨晓甜，刘酌希，等.气候变化和土地利用变化对水文过程影响研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2019,40(4):46-50.[ZHANG C F,YANG X T,LIU Z X,et al.Research progress on the impact of climate change and land use change on hydrological process[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2019,40(4):46-50.]
[3] KUNDU S,KHARE D,MONDAL A.Past,present and future land use changes and their impact on water balance[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2017,197:582-596.
[4] SADHWANI K,ELDHO T I,KARMAKAR S.Investigating the influence of future landuse and climate change on hydrological regime of a humid tropical river basin[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2023,82(9):230.
[5] ZHANG L,CHENG L,CHIEW F,et al.Understanding the impacts of climate and landuse change on water yield[J].Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,2018,33:167-174.
[6] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate C.Climate change 2022:impacts,adaptation and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2023.
[7] CHEN H P,SUN J Q,LIN W Q,et al.Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating climate extremes[J].Science Bulletin,2020,65(17):1415-1418.
[8] 贾何佳，李谢辉，文军，等.黄河源区径流变化模拟及未来趋势预估[J].资源科学，2022,44(6):1292-1304.[JIA H J,LI X H,WEN J,et al.Simulation of runoff change and future trend projection in the source region of the Yellow River[J].Resources Science,2022,44(6):1292-1304.]
[9] AMOGNEHEGN A E,NIGUSSIE A B,AYALEW D W,et al.Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed,Upper Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia[J].Applied Water Science,2023,13(7):148.
[10] AMIRI S N,KHOSHRAVESH M,VALASHEDI R N.Assessing the effect of climate and land use changes on the hydrologic regimes in the upstream of Tajan river basin using SWAT model[J].Applied Water Science,2023,13(6):137.
[11] 朱双，李建庆，罗显刚，等.气候变化和都市化双重驱动下流域未来水文响应[J].人民长江，2021,52(11):86-91,127.[ZHU S,LI J Q,LUO X G,et al.Future hydrological response of basin under dual drivers of climate change and urbanization[J].Yangtze River,2021,52(11):86-91,127.]
[12] YANG J,HUANG X.The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019[J].Earth System Science Data,2021,13(8):3907-3925.
[13] 刘俊，刘时银，上官冬辉，等.CMADS、ITPCAS和TRMM 3B42 3套降水数据集在玉龙喀什河流域的适用性评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(5):28-37.[LIU J,LIU S Y,SHANGGUAN D H,et al.Applicability evaluation of three precipitation datasets (CMADS,ITPCAS and TRMM 3B42) in Yurungkax River Basin[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2017,38(5):28-37.]
[14] 孟现勇，师春香，刘时银，等.CMADS数据集及其在流域水文模型中的驱动作用：以黑河流域为例[J].人民珠江，2016,37(7):1-19.[MENG X Y,SHI C X,LIU S Y,et al.CMADS dataset and its driving effect on watershed hydrological model:a case study of Heihe River Basin[J].Pearl River,2016,37(7):1-19.]
[15] 李小根，段小芳，付景保，等.基于GIS的丹江口水库土地利用/覆被动态变化特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2022,43(3):90-98.[LI X G,DUAN X F,FU J B,et al.Analysis of dynamic characteristics of land use/cover in Danjiangkou Reservoir based on GIS[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2022,43(3):90-98.]
[16] 刘卫林，李香，吴滨，等.修河中上游流域土地利用变化对径流的影响[J].水土保持研究，2023,30(3):111-120.[LIU W L,LI X,WU B,et al.Effects of land use change on runoff in the middle and upper reaches of Xiuhe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(3):111-120.]
[17] 张丽霞，陈晓龙，辛晓歌.CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述[J].气候变化研究进展，2019,15(5):519-525.[ZHANG L X,CHEN X L,XIN X G.Introduction of CMIP6 scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP)[J].Climate Change Research,2019,15(5):519-525.]
[18] 李昕潼，李占玲，韩孺村.不同偏差校正法对GCM降水数据的应用效果分析[J].水文，2023,43(3):93-100.[LI X T,LI Z L,HAN R C.Analysis on the application effect of different bias correction methods to GCM precipitation data[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2023,43(3):93-100.]
[19] 陈泽霞，朱睿，尹振良，等.基于CMIP6多模式的黑河干流山区降水气温变化趋势分析[J].高原气象，2022,41(6):1544-1556.[CHEN Z X,ZHU R,YIN Z L,et al.Analysis of precipitation and temperature trends in the mountainous area of the main stream of Heihe River based on CMIP6 multi-models[J].Plateau Meteorology,2022,41(6):1544-1556.]
[20] 张利敏，王浩，孟现勇.基于CMADS驱动的SWAT模型在辽宁浑河流域的应用研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(5):1-9.[ZHANG L M,WANG H,MENG X Y.Application of SWAT model driven by CMADS in Hunhe River Basin of Liaoning Province[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2017,38(5):1-9.]
[21] 左德鹏，徐宗学.基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的渭河流域月径流分布式模拟[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):490-496.[ZUO D P,XU Z X.Distributed simulation of monthly runoff in Weihe River Basin based on SWAT model and SUFI-2 algorithm[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2012,48(5):490-496.]
[22] 刘宁，张霞，祝雪萍，等.基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的碧流河流域径流模拟[J].水力发电，2019,45(3):18-22,89.[LIU N,ZHANG X,ZHU X P,et al.Runoff simulation in Biliu River Basin based on SWAT model and SUFI-2 algorithm[J].Water Power,2019,45(3):18-22,89.]
[23] 郝洁，刘翠善，王尧，等.基于高程的山南市土地利用变化时空格局及驱动力分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2022,43(4):91-97.[HAO J,LIU C S,WANG Y,et al.Spatiotemporal pattern and driving force analysis of land use change in Shannan City based on elevation[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2022,43(4):91-97.]
[24] 杜欢，付蔚，邹瑜，等.基于SWAT模型的岷江上游流域土地利用变化对径流的影响[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),2023,54(1):92-97.[DU H,FU W,ZOU Y,et al.Impact of land use change on runoff in the upper reaches of Minjiang River Basin based on SWAT model[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University (Natural Science Edition),2023,54(1):92-97.]
[25] 邵冰清，刘金鑫，曹志先.水阳江流域(宣城段)土地利用变化的水文响应分析[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2022,55(12):1213-1220.[SHAO B Q,LIU J X,CAO Z X.Hydrological response analysis of land use change in Shuiyangjiang River Basin (Xuancheng Section)[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2022,55(12):1213-1220.]
[26] 马明卫，王召航，臧红飞，等.基于SSP情景的黄河源区未来径流模拟预估[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2023,44(5):31-40.[MA M W,WANG Z H,ZANG H F,et al.Simulation and prediction of future runoff in the source region of Yellow River based on SSP scenarios[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2023,44(5):31-40.]
[27] 曹灿，孙瑞，吴志祥，等.基于SWAT模型的南渡江上游流域径流对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究，2022,29(2):255-264.[CAO C,SUN R,WU Z X,et al.Response of runoff to climate change in the upper reaches of Nandu River Basin based on SWAT model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(2):255-264.]
[28] 王润蒲，戴长雷，于成刚，等.基于SWAT模型的呼玛河流域径流对气候变化的水文响应[J].水电能源科学，2023,41(4):27-30.[WANG R P,DAI C L,YU C G,et al.Hydrological response of runoff to climate change in Huma River Basin based on SWAT model[J].Water Resources and Power,2023,41(4):27-30.]
基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025090
中图分类号:P467;TV121
引用信息:
[1]王怡飞,李永芳,宋刚福,等.土地利用及气候变化对南湾水库上游流域径流影响模拟[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2025,46(06):65-75.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025090.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(52109085); 河南省科技攻关项目(242102321054,232102321045)