自然科学版学报

为定量评价区域水资源承载力、挖掘区域水资源承载力评价过程中的不确定性信息、合理构造集对分析联系数分量的迁移率矩阵，提出采用基于同异反总关系程度“a+b+c”度量的整体偏联系数方法计算得到修正联系数分量，再结合三角模糊数随机模拟方法，构建了基于整体偏联系数与随机模拟耦合的水资源承载力评价方法。文中模型在宿州市2011—2019年的应用结果表明：宿州市水资源承载能力总体偏低，除2018年以外，其余年份水资源承载力评价等级均在2级以上，但是评价等级有逐年下降趋势，水资源承载力呈现正向改善的趋势；水资源承载力级别特征值全部落在本文方法计算出的评价区间内，认为该方法合理，与基于偏联系数原理构造的迁移率矩阵计算的评级等级基本一致且误差更小，说明该方法在联系数分量迁移转化时更合理，可为判别区域水资源承载力评价等级、合理调控区域水资源承载力提供有效途径。

To quantitatively assess regional water resource carrying capacity(WRCC), address unearth uncertainty information, and rationally construct the mobility matrix of connection number components in set pair analysis, this study proposes a method coupling overall partial connection number and stochastic simulation. The method employs the ″a+b+c″ degree based on the sum of same, different, and inverse relationships to calculate corrected connection number components, which are then combined with triangular fuzzy number-based stochastic simulation. A WRCC evaluation model was developed using this coupling approach. Application of the model to Suzhou City from 2011 to 2019 reveals that the overall WRCC of Suzhou is relatively low. Except for 2018, the WRCC evaluation grades for other years are above grade 2, showing an overall decreasing trend and the WRCC with signs of positive improvement. The level eigenvalues of WRCC fall within the evaluation intervals calculated by the proposed method, demonstrating its accuracy and reasonableness. Furthermore, the evaluation results are consistent with those derived from the mobility matrix constructed based on the partial connection number principle, with smaller errors. This indicates that the proposed method is more rational in the migration transformation of connection number components, providing more accurate and objective results. The method provides an effective way to accurately determine the regional WRCC evaluation grade and for guiding the rational regulation of regional WRCC.