华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)

全球变暖加快了水文循环速度，导致极端降水事件频发，增强了城市排水负荷和洪涝风险，并影响了区域气候的时空特征。在河南省均匀选取26个雨量站对1960—2020年61年间的降水资料进行研究，采用趋势分析、Kriging插值、M-K突变分析、Morlet小波变换和Spearman相关系数等方法对河南省9个极端降水指数的时空演变特征进行分析。结果显示：河南省年降水量呈上升趋势，极端降水事件呈下降趋势，河南省整体气候逐渐变得湿润。河南省极端降水指数具有显著空间差异，东南部极端降水风险显著大于西北部。除降水强度、最大连续降水日数和1 d最大降水量外，其余指数与年降水量、汛期和6—9月的各月降水量具有良好的相关性，这对于评估年降水量及其年内分布特征、极端降水事件频率有较好的参考作用。结果表明：降水从短历时高强度向长历时低强度演变，要应对此类长历时极端降水的风险，防涝思路应从提高短时间大量排水能力转变到提高长时间低强度吸收降水能力。

Global warming has accelerated the hydrological cycle leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, increased urban drainage loads and flood risks, and affected the temporal and spatial characteristics of regional climate. In this paper, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of nine extreme precipitation indices in Henan Province were analyzed by the methods of trend analysis, Kriging interpolation, M-K mutation analysis, Morlet wavelet transform and Spearman correlation coefficient based on the administrative division of Henan Province, and 26 rainfall stations were evenly selected in the region for the 61 years period from 1960 to 2020. The results show that the annual precipitation in Henan Province is on an increasing trend, the extreme precipitation events are on a decreasing trend, and the overall climate of Henan Province is gradually becoming wetter. Extreme precipitation indices in Henan Province have significant spatial differences, and the risk of extreme precipitation is significantly greater in the southeast than in the northwest. Except for precipitation intensity, maximum number of consecutive precipitation days and 1-day maximum precipitation, the indices have good correlation with annual precipitation, flood season and monthly precipitation from June to September, which is a good guideline for assessing annual precipitation and its intra-annual distribution characteristics, and frequency of extreme precipitation events. The results indicate that precipitation evolves from high intensity in short duration to low intensity in long duration, and the risk of such extreme precipitation in long duration should be addressed by realizing a shift in the thinking of flood control from improving the capacity to drain large amounts of water in short periods to absorbing precipitation in low intensity in long periods.