华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)

土地资源是人类赖以生存的物质基础，开展土地利用变化的驱动因子与多情景模拟研究对理解人地系统协调过程、支撑区域可持续发展决策具有重要意义。以位于秦岭—黄淮平原过渡带的河南省豫西山区为研究区域，首先，利用土地利用数据分析该区域2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年的土地利用变化特征及演变规律；其次，通过Logistic回归模型分析19个驱动因子的影响程度，并采用ROC曲线验证模型精度；最后，基于Markov-FLUS耦合模型模拟自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下2025年、2035年的土地利用格局。结果表明：(1)2005—2020年间，耕地、林地和草地面积呈减少趋势，居民点用地、水域和未利用地面积显著增加，其中居民点用地扩张对耕地的挤占效应突出；(2)东北部平坦区域及市县城镇周边为土地利用变化敏感区，地势较高的西部地区土地利用类型转换速率较低；(3)驱动因子的影响存在显著差异，政策规制与自然因子的作用最为显著；(4)情景模拟显示，各类发展情景下城镇均呈现向外扩张趋势，且以东北为主要扩张方向，其中自然发展情景的扩张强度最大，耕地保护情景与生态保护情景可分别有效抑制耕地流失和生态用地减少。研究表明，政策规制是优化豫西山区土地利用格局的有效措施，研究结果可为豫西山区以及西部欠发达地区土地资源可持续利用、生态保护与耕地安全管控提供决策依据。

As a material basis for human survival, land resources are of great significance for studying the driving factors of land use change and multi-scenario simulation to understand the coordination process of the human-land system and support regional sustainable development decision-making.This study focuses on the mountainous area in western Henan Province, situated in the transition zone between the Qinling Mountains and the Huanghuai Plain. Firstly, land use data from the year of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were employed to analyze the characteristics and evolution patterns of land use changes in the region. Subsequently, a Logistic regression model was utilized to assess the influence of 19 driving factors, and the ROC curve was adopted to validate the model′s accuracy. Finally, the Markov-FLUS coupled model was applied to simulate the land use patterns in 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios: the natural development scenario, the farmland protection scenario, and the ecological protection scenario. The results show that:(1) From the year of 2005 to 2020, the areas of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland decreased, while the areas of residential land, water bodies, and unused land increased significantly, with the expansion of residential land having a prominent effect on the encroachment of cultivated land.(2) The northeastern flat areas and the peripheries of county and city towns are sensitive areas for land use change, while the western areas with higher terrain have a lower rate of land use type conversion.(3) The influence of driving factors varies significantly, with policy regulations and natural factors being the most significant.(4) The scenario simulation shows that in all development scenarios, towns are expanding outward, with the northeastern direction being the main expansion direction. Among them, the natural development scenario has the greatest expansion intensity, while the farmland protection scenario and the ecological protection scenario can effectively inhibit the loss of cultivated land and the reduction of ecological land, respectively. In conclusion, the study indicates that policy regulations are effective measures to optimize the land use pattern in the mountainous area of western Henan Province. The results can provide decision-making basis for the sustainable utilization of land resources, ecological protection, and cultivated land security control in the mountainous area of western Henan Province and other underdeveloped western regions.