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研究不同气候条件下流域旱涝特征的异同，揭示气候条件对流域旱涝情况的影响，可为不同气候条件下旱涝灾害的评估和预测提供依据。基于标准化降水指数，通过Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验、小波分析等方法对渭河流域及嘉陵江流域的旱涝演变特征进行了分析。结果表明：(1)两流域的旱涝程度以轻、中度为主，但嘉陵江流域更容易发生旱涝，渭河流域的旱涝历时更长。(2)两流域旱涝变化过程相似，但渭河流域的旱涝突变点在累积时间尺度较短时出现得更晚，反之出现得更早，且出现显著性变化趋势的持续时间更长。(3)当累积时间尺度较短时，渭河流域的标准化降水指数受大周期震荡影响较大，嘉陵江流域的标准化降水指数受小周期震荡影响较大；渭河流域的标准化降水指数在长时间和短时间尺度下均呈现出周期性，嘉陵江流域的标准化降水指数只在长时间尺度下呈现出较强的周期性。(4)渭河流域北部部分地区应在春季、嘉陵江流域南部应在夏季预防洪涝灾害，渭河流域的西部和北部、嘉陵江流域的南部应在秋、冬两季重点预防旱灾的发生。
Abstract：Contrasting the similarities and differences in drought and flood characteristics of river basins under different climatic conditions can more comprehensively explain the impact of climate conditions on drought and flood conditions in river basins, and provide a more representative scientific basis for the assessment and prediction of drought and flood disasters under different climatic conditions. Based on the standardized precipitation index, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of drought and flood in the Weihe river and Jialing river basins by Mann-Kendall test, sliding T test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that:(1)The drought and flood intensities in both basins were predominantly mild and moderate, but the Jialing river basin was more prone to drought and flood, and the drought and flood in the Weihe river basin lasted longer.(2)The drought and flood variation processes in both basins are similar, but the mutation points of the Weihe river basin appear later at smaller cumulative time scales and earlier at larger time scales, with a longer duration of significant change trends.(3)At smaller cumulative time scales, the SPI of the Weihe river basin is more influenced by large-cycle oscillations, while the Jialing river basin is more affected by small-cycle oscillations; The SPI in the Weihe river basin exhibits periodicity at both long-term and short-term time scales, whereas the Jialing river basin shows strong periodicity only at long-term scales.(4)Flood prevention should focus on spring in the northern Weihe river basin and summer in the southern Jialing river basin, while drought prevention should target autumn and winter in the western and northern Weihe river basin and the southern Jialing river basin.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025007
中图分类号:P333
引用信息:
[1]黄祎,黎云云,李艳春等.南北典型流域旱涝演变特征及其对比研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2025,46(01):63-77.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025007.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(52009053,52209013,32101363); 绵阳师范学院科研启动项目(QD2020A06);绵阳师范学院研究生创新实践基金项目(CX202340)