华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版)

【目的】揭示人口增长、不透水面扩张与用水量变化之间的关系，为河南省人口、土地和水资源协调发展提供科学依据。【方法】基于2000—2022年的面板数据和遥感数据，采用强度差异指数、脱钩指数和数据包络方法的CCR模型，对河南省各地市人口增长和不透水面扩张强度进行测度，分析其变化趋势，揭示其对用水量的影响。【结果】(1)河南省各地市人口和不透水面变化强度均增大，人口增长强度在2010年由高于不透水面扩张强度变为低于不透水面扩张强度，人口和不透水面配置存在空间错位现象。(2)省级尺度下，人口和不透水面的关系始终是弱脱钩型，但人口增速和不透水面扩张速度之间差距逐渐增大；市级尺度下，人口和不透水面的脱钩关系经历了“弱脱钩”为主到“弱脱钩”“强脱钩”为主的变化过程。(3)省级尺度下，人口作用效率高于不透水面作用效率，人口增长是用水量增加的主导因素；市级尺度下，人口和不透水面对用水量的作用效率存在区域差异，人口增长主导与不透水面扩张主导交替出现，呈现区域差异化特征。【结论】人口增长和不透水面扩张都促进用水量的增加，人口与用水量的相关性更强。河南省应统筹协调各地市人口和不透水面的规模与增速，调整用水计划与产业结构，实现人口、土地和水资源协调发展的目标。

【Objective】 To reveal the relationship between population growth, impervious surface expansion, and changes in water consumption, and to provide a scientific basis for the coordinated development of population, land, and water resources in Henan Province. 【Methods】 Based on panel data and remote sensing data from 2000 to 2022, the intensity difference index, decoupling index, and CCR model of data envelopment analysis were used to measure the intensity of population growth and impervious surface expansion in various cities of Henan Province, and the change trends were analyzed to reveal their influence on water consumption. 【Results】(1) The intensity of population growth and impervious surface changes in various cities of Henan Province increased. In 2010, the intensity of population growth changed from being higher than impervious surface expansion to being lower than impervious surface expansion. There was a spatial misalignment in the allocation of population and impervious surface.(2) At the provincial scale, the relationship between population and impervious surface was consistently characterized by weak decoupling, but the gap between population growth rate and impervious surface expansion rate gradually increased. At the municipal scale, the decoupling relationship between population and impervious surface underwent a process from being dominated by ″weak decoupling″ to being dominated by ″weak decoupling and strong decoupling″.(3) At the provincial scale, the effect efficiency of population was higher than that of impervious surface, and population growth was the dominant factor driving the increase in water consumption. At the municipal scale, there were regional differences in the effect efficiency of population and impervious surface on water consumption, and the dominance between population growth and impervious surface expansion alternated, demonstrating regional differentiation characteristics. 【Conclusion】 Population growth and impervious surface expansion both promote an increase in water consumption, but the correlation between population and water consumption is stronger. Henan Province should coordinate the scale and growth rate of population and impervious surface in various cities, adjust water use plans and industrial structures, and achieve the goal of coordinated development of population, land, and water resources.