| 572 | 0 | 144 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】水土资源是经济社会发展最重要的基础性资源。明确水土资源的时空匹配关系及变化特征，为区域水土资源优化配置提供决策参考。【方法】以河南省沿黄城市为例，基于一阶动力系统，以2010—2022年的历史数据建立系统动力学模型，预测2020—2035年区域用水情况，并以此作为PLUS模型的约束条件，模拟2020—2035年区域土地利用格局，并分别计算农业水土资源和城镇水土资源的匹配系数。【结果】(1)2020—2035年河南省沿黄城市总用水量呈现增长趋势，其中郑州、开封和新乡的用水量增加趋势显著。(2)2010—2020年建设用地的转入面积显著高于其他土地利用类型的，其中耕地是转为建设用地面积最大的类型。(3)2030—2035年，农业水土资源和城镇水土资源的匹配系数分别为0.186万m3/hm2和0.513万m3/hm2,与2025—2030年的相比分别增加10.06%和4.70%。(4)郑州、洛阳、三门峡、济源等工业型城市城镇水土资源匹配状况较好，农业水土资源匹配状况较差；开封、新乡、焦作、濮阳等农业型城市的城镇水土资源匹配状况较差，农业水土资源匹配状况较好。【结论】2020—2035年河南省沿黄城市的农业水土资源匹配系数和城镇水土资源匹配系数先减小后增加，水土资源匹配程度将得到改善。
Abstract：【Objective】 Water and land resources are the most fundamental resources for economic and social development. This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal matching relationships and variation characteristics of water and land resources, thereby providing a decision-making reference for the optimal allocation of regional water and land resources. 【Methods】 Taking the cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province as a case study, a system dynamics model was established based on a first-order dynamic system and historical data from 2010 to 2022. This model was used to predict regional water consumption from 2020 to 2035. The prediction results were then used as a constraint for the PLUS model to simulate the regional land use patterns from 2020 to 2035. Additionally, the matching coefficients of agricultural water-land resources and urban water-land resources were calculated respectively. 【Results】(1) The total water consumption in cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2035, among which Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, and Xinxiang exhibited a significant increasing trend.(2) From 2010 to 2020, the area transferred into construction land was substantially larger than that of other land use types, with cropland being the primary source of such transfer.(3) During 2030-2035, the matching coefficient of agricultural and urban water-land resources were 1 860 m3/hm2 and 5 130 m3/hm2, respectively, representing increases of 10.06% and 4.70% compared to the 2025-2030 period.(4) In industrial cities such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, and Jiyuan, the matching status of urban water-land resources was relatively good, while that of agricultural water-land resources was poor. In agricultural cities such as Kaifeng, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, and Puyang, the matching status of urban water-land resources was relatively poor, while that of agricultural water-land resources was good. 【Conclusion】 From 2020 to 2035, the agricultural and urban water-land resource matching coefficients in the cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province initially decrease and then increase, indicating an overall improvement in the degree of water-land resource matching.
[1] 曹连海，刘晓博，张志强，等.基于CRITIC-TOPSIS的许昌市农业水土资源评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2023,44(1):56-61.[CAO L H,LIU X B,ZHANG Z Q,et.al.Evaluation on agricultural water and soil resources in Xuchang City based on CRITIC-TOPSIS[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2023,44(1):56-61.]
[2] 刘晶，鲍振鑫，刘翠善，等.国内外区域水土资源匹配研究综述[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2019,40(6):20-24,74.[LIU J,BAO Z X,LIU C S,et al.Review of the study on the matching of regional land and water resources at home and abroad[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2019,40(6):20-24,74.]
[3] HUANG X,FANG H,WU M Y,et al.Assessment of the regional agricultural water-land Nexus in China:a green-blue water perspective[J].Science of The Total Environment,2022,804:150192.
[4] 刘雁慧，李阳兵，梁鑫源，等.中国水资源承载力评价及变化研究[J].长江流域资源与环境，2019,28(5):1080-1091.[LIU Y H,LI Y B,LIANG X Y,et al.Study on water resource carrying capacity evaluation and change in China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2019,28(5):1080-1091.]
[5] LUO J M,ZHANG H M,QI Y Q,et al.Balancing water and food by optimizing the planting structure in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2022,262:107326.
[6] SHEN Y,ZHANG Y,SCANLON R B,et al.Energy/water budgets and productivity of the typical croplands irrigated with groundwater and surface water in the North China Plain[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2013:181133-181142.
[7] ERIK N,HEATHER S,PETER H,et al.Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models[J].PloS One,2010,5(12):e14327.
[8] 吴宇哲，鲍海君.区域基尼系数及其在区域水土资源匹配分析中的应用[J].水土保持学报，2023(5):123-125.[WU Y Z,BAO H J.Regional Gini coefficient and its uses in analyzing to balance between water and soil[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2023(5):123-125.]
[9] 文倩，孙江涛，范利瑶，等.基于熵权TOPSIS的河南省农业水土资源承载力时空分异与关联分析[J].水土保持研究，2022,29(1):333-338.[WEN Q,SUN J T,FAN L Y,et al.Evaluation of agricultural soil-water resources carrying capacity (ASWCC) and relation analysis based on entropy weight TOPSIS in Henan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(1):333-338.]
[10] 樊慧丽，付文阁.水足迹视角下我国农业水土资源匹配及农业经济增长：以长江经济带为例[J].中国农业资源与区划，2020,41(10):193-203.[FAN H L,FU W G.Analysis of water and soil resources matching and agricultural economic growth in China from the percepective of water foofprint:taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2020,41(10):193-203.]
[11] 杨静，周冬梅，马静，等.疏勒河流域农业水土资源时空匹配特征分析[J].干旱区地理，2023,46(6):982-992.[YANG J,ZHOU D M,MA J,et al.Spatial and temporal matching characteristics of agricultural land and water resources in the Shule River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography,2023,46(6):982-992.]
[12] 王建华，何国华，何凡，等.中国水土资源开发利用特征及匹配性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技，2019,17(4):1-8.[WANG J H,HE G H,HE F,et al.Utilization and matching patterns of water and land resources in China[J].South to North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2019,17(4):1-8.]
[13] DU J,YANG Z,WANG H,et al.Spatial-Temporal matching characteristics between agricultural water and land resources in Ningxia,Northwest China[J].Water,2019,11(7):1460.
[14] 黄克威，袁鹏，刘刚.基于DEA的四川省水土资源匹配研究[J].中国农村水利水电，2015(10):58-61,65.[HUANG K W,YUAN P,LIU G.Research on water and soil resources matching in Sichuan Province Based on DEA[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2015(10):58-61,65.]
[15] 刘统兵，方瑜，黄峰，等.中国广义农业水土资源匹配及利用状况动态评价[J].农业工程学报，2023,39(10):56-65.[LIU T B,FANG Y,HUANG F,et al.Dynamic evaluation of the matching degree and utilization condition of generalized agricultural water and arable land resources in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2023,39(10):56-65.]
[16] 周亮广，金菊良，周玉良，等.基于集对分析的江淮丘陵区农业水土资源匹配分析[J].水资源保护，2023,39(4):118-125,186.[ZHOU L G,JIN J L,ZHOU Y L,et al.Matching of agricultural water and soil resources in Jianghuai Hilly Area based on set pair analysis[J].Water Resources Protection,2023,39(4):118-125,186.]
[17] 王亚迪，左其亭，刘欢，等.河南省水土资源匹配特征及均衡性分析[J].人民黄河，2018,40(4):55-59,64.[WANG Y D,ZUO Q T,LIU H,et al.Equilibrium analysis of the matching characteristics of water and soil resources in Henan Province[J].Yellow River,2018,40(4):55-59,64.]
[18] 刘露，朱得胜，夏帆，等.延河流域土地利用变化特征分析[J].地理空间信息，2021,19(5):38-41,4.[LIU L,ZHU D S,XIA F,et al.Characteristic analysis of land use changes in Yan River Basin[J].Geospatial Information,2021,19(5):38-41,4.]
[19] 廖慧，舒章康，金君良，等.1980—2015年黄河流域土地利用变化特征与驱动力[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2021,19(1):129-139.[LIAO H,SHU Z K,JIN J L,et al.Characteristics and driving forces of land use change in the Yellow River basin from 1980 to 2015[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2021,19(1):129-139.]
[20] 姜秋香，赵蚰竹，王子龙，等.系统动力学在水土资源系统中的应用研究进展[J].东北农业大学报，2017,48(7):91-96.[JIANG Q X,ZHAO Y Z,WANG Z L,et al.Research advance on the system dynamics used in the soil and water resources[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2017,48(7):91-96.]
[21] 赵汝鹏，王昕，李庆国，等.基于系统动力学模型的山东省农业供需水优化[J].济南大学学报(自然科学版),2022,36(6):653-658,667.[ZHAO R P,WANG X,LI Q G,et al.Optimization of agricultural water supply and demand in Shandong Province based on system dynamics model[J].Journal of University of Jinan (Science and Technology),2022,36(6):653-658,667.]
[22] LIANG X,GUAN Q F,CLARKE K C,et al.Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model:a case study in Wuhan,China[J].Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2021,85:101569.
[23] 李琛，高彬嫔，吴映梅，等.基于PLUS模型的山区城镇景观生态风险动态模拟[J].浙江农林大学学报，2022,39(1):84-94.[LI C,GAO B P,WU Y M,et al.Dynamic simulation of landscape ecological risk in mountain towns based on PLUS model[J].Journal of Zhejiang A & F University,2022,39(1):84-94.]
[24] 蒋小芳，段翰晨，廖杰，等.基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究[J].干旱区研究，2022,39(4):1246-1258.[JIANG X F,DUAN H C,LIAO J,et al.Land use in the Gan-Lin-Gao region of middle reaches of Heihe River Basin based on a PLUS-SD coupling model[J].Arid Zone Research,2022,39(4):1246-1258.]
[25] 姜秋香，付强，王子龙，等.三江平原水土资源空间匹配格局[J].自然资源学报，2011,26(2):270-277.[JIANG Q X,FU Q,WANG Z L,et al.Spatial matching patterns of land and water resources in Sanjiang Plain[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(2):270-277.]
[26] 夏帆，陈莹，窦明，等.水资源空间均衡系数计算方法及其应用[J].水资源保护，2020,36(1):52-57.[XIA F,CHEN Y,DOU M,et al.Calculation method and application of spatial equilibrium coefficient of water resources[J].Water Resources Protection,2020,36(1):52-57.]
[27] 张帆，尹萌，张金霞.基于熵权TOPSIS的黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力评价[J].人民黄河，2024,46(4):79-85.[ZHANG F,YIN M,ZHANG J X.Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin based on Entropy-Weight-TOPSIS Model[J].Yellow River,2024,46(4):79-85.]
[28] 李慧，周维博，庄妍，等.延安市农业水土资源匹配及承载力[J].农业工程学报，2016,32(5):156-162.[LI H,ZHOU W B,ZHUANG Y,et al.Agricultural water and soil resources matching patterns and carrying capacity in Yan′an City[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(5):156-162.]
[29] 王悦，蒋志辉，褚家琦，等.塔里木河流域农业水土资源时空匹配关系研究[J].农业资源与环境学报，2024,41(2):360-370.[WANG Y,JIANG Z H,CHU J Q,et al.Study on the spatiotemporal matching relationship of agricultural water and land resources in the Tarim River basin[J].Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment,2024,41(2):360-370.]
[30] 侯淑涛，袁伟豪，陈建龙，等.黑龙江省农业水土资源匹配格局与区域调控[J].水土保持通报，2022,42(1):150-157,165.[HOU S T,YUAN W H,CHEN J L,et al.Matching pattern and regional regulation of agricultural water and land resources in Heilongjiang Province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,42(1):150-157,165.]
基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025087
中图分类号:F299.23;TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]郭辉,夏帆,张晓立,等.河南省沿黄城市水土资源时空匹配特征及预测分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2025,46(06):34-43.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025087.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42201017); 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202400); 河南省水利科技攻关项目(GG202403)