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【目的】分析影响区域水资源供需平衡的关键因素，构建科学的调控策略，为推进水资源可持续利用与区域高质量发展提供理论支撑与实践路径。【方法】基于水足迹和蓝绿水理论，创新性地从广义水资源角度探讨流域水资源压力机制。以延河流域为例，采用SWAT模型计算流域蓝绿水量，耦合系统动力学模型，设定自然发展、水资源调控、经济调控、生态调控4种情景，量化分析不同情景对水资源承载力的影响，进而提出提高水资源承载力的调控方案。【结果】SWAT模型率定期和验证期的决定系数R2、纳什效率系数NSE分别为0.69、0.61和0.88、0.78,模拟精度良好；延河流域多年平均蓝水量为14.08亿m3,多年平均绿水量为31.93亿m3,绿水是流域水资源的主要组成部分；预测到2035年，流域农业、工业、生活、生态需水量均呈现上升趋势，而流域蓝水可供给量仅为0.93亿m3;水资源调控情景下供需差额最小，平均为0.059亿m3,但苹果、蔬菜产量与规划预期分别相差36.13万t、35.27万t,工业产值相差22.13亿元，工农业发展受限；经济调控情景下供需差额最大，平均为-0.522亿m3,供需压力进一步加剧；生态调控情景下的结果与规划目标基本符合，供需差额平均为-0.129亿m3。【结论】生态调控情景下水资源供需比为1.33,各子系统的模拟值基本符合远景目标。该情景有效实现了生态保护、经济发展与水资源利用的动态平衡，是延河流域未来实现高质量发展的策略参考。
Abstract：【Objective】 This study aims to analyze the key factors affecting the regional water supply-demand balance and develop evidence-based management strategies, thereby providing theoretical support and practical pathways for promoting sustainable water use and high-quality regional development. 【Methods】 Based on water footprint and blue-green water frameworks, this study innovatively explored the mechanisms of water resources stress in the river basin from a holistic view of water resources. Taking the Yanhe River Basin as an example, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model was employed to calculate basin-scale blue and green water volume, which was then coupled with a system dynamics model. Four future scenarios-natural development, water-resource-focused regulation, economic-growth-driven development, and ecological-priority management-were designed to quantitatively analyze their impacts on water resources carrying capacity, thereby proposing regulation strategies to enhance water resources carrying capacity. 【Results】 The SWAT model achieved R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE) values of 0.69 and 0.61 during the calibration period, and 0.88 and 0.78 during validation, indicating good simulation accuracy. The multi-year average blue water volume was 1.408 billion m3, and the multi-year average green water volume was 3.193 billion m3, highlighting green water as the dominant component of the river basin′s water resources. By 2035, agricultural, industrial, domestic, and ecological water demands in the river basin were projected to increase, with the projected blue water supply reaching only 93 million m3. Under the water-resource-focused regulation scenario, the supply-demand gap was minimized, averaging 5.9 million m3. However, apple and vegetable yields deviated from the planned targets by 361 300 t and 352 700 t, respectively, and industrial output was 2.213 billion yuan lower, indicating constraints on industrial and agricultural development. Under the economic-growth-driven development scenario, the supply-demand gap was the largest, averaging-52.2 million m3, further intensifying supply-demand pressure. In contrast, the results under the ecological-priority management scenario aligned closely with the planned targets, yielding an average supply-demand gap of-12.9 million m3. 【Conclusion】 The ecological-priority management scenario achieves a water supply-demand ratio of 1.33, and the simulated values of subsystems are generally consistent with the long-term development goals. This scenario effectively achieves a dynamic balance among ecological protection, economic development, and water resources utilization, serving as a strategic reference for high-quality development in the Yanhe River Basin in the future.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026020
中图分类号:TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]夏帆,李新生,贾冬冬,等.延河流域广义水资源调控及仿真模拟[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2026,47(02):21-33.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2026020.
基金信息:
国家“十四五”重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202405); 国家自然科学基金项目(52009043); 河南省科技攻关项目(242102320322); 河南省高等学校重点科研项目(24A570003)
2025-01-15
2025-01-15
2025-01-15