自然科学版学报

为在随机、模糊、未确知等不确定性条件下定量评判和诊断分析区域水资源承载力系统的总体状况和发展趋势,用联系数有效处理水资源承载力评价指标与评价标准间的不确定性,提出用最小相对熵原理综合评价样本联系数和评价指标值联系数,构造了减法集对势这一新的集对势函数,并用于测度区域水资源承载力系统在当前宏观期望层次上所处的确定性状态和发展趋势、诊断识别水资源承载力的脆弱性指标,进而建立了基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析的一套方法(CNAD)。CNAD在安徽省淮北地区的应用结果表明:淮北地区2004、2010、2020年的水资源承载力等级均介于承载力一般等级与较弱等级之间;这3 a的评价样本联系数、评价指标值联系数、平均联系数值中只有2020年的评价指标值联系数处于偏反势(接近反势的临界值),其余联系数均处于反势,说明该地区水资源承载力的综合发展趋势为负向发展,水资源承载状态十分严峻。CNAD充分挖掘了水资源承载力评价标准等级与评价指标样本值之间各单指标联系数的评价信息,评价和诊断的结果可靠、合理,方法直观、简便、通用性强,在各种实际资源环境承载力评价和诊断分析中具有重要的推广应用价值。

In order to quantitatively judge the overall status of water resources carrying capacity system and diagnose the key indexes which led the system locate vulnerability status under the random,fuzzy or unascertained complex conditions,connection number method was used to effectively handle the uncertainty between assessment indexes and grading standard of regional water resources carrying capacity,the minimum relative entropy principle was used to combine assessment sample connection number and assessment indexes connection number,subtraction based set pair situation is proposed to estimate the deterministic state and development trend of regional water resources carrying capacity system at present from macro-level and to identify vulnerability indexes,and then connection number based assessment and diagnosis analysis method for water resources carrying capacity,named CNAD for short,was established. The research results of CNAD were applied to assess the water resources carrying capacity of Huaibei City show that the water resources carrying capacity grades in 2004,2010 and 2020 are between the general grade and the weak grade,the comprehensive development trend of the region water resources carrying capacity is negative. The assessment and diagnosis analysis results of CNAD are reasonable and reliable owing to the comprehensive utilization of assessment information of single-valued connection number,CNAD is simple and convenient,and CNAD can be applied to assess and diagnose different actual regional resources and environment carrying capacity.